Did anyone else here (Lord) Nigel Lawson being interviewed about his new book "questioning" the evidence for GW?
As far as i understood it (and I'm going on the interview not the book) his arguement is that:-
GW may or may not exist, but if it happens then "man is adaptable and we can reap the benefit of any change".
Now to me that is at least slightly more positive than the "oh we're all going to die anyways as part of the natural process" in that Lord Lawson at least envisions that "man" will survive.
BUT
As we are already seeing with food prices increasing, population increasing and Democracy being hijacked, any changes brought on by GW aren't going to involve pleasant increases in temperature so we can all enjoy a nice holiday in Bognor Regis and sip Pimms. But huge dislocation in food supply, population, generally a very unpleasant time.
He also stated that (truthfully as far as I can see) no-one who signed up to the Kyoto agreement will meet their targets, as it is too expensive and would disrupt the economy.
So (and I realise this was an edited interview, and the book may have a slightly different emphasis)
it seems now that GW is going to happen but it might not, but there's nothing we should / could do about it because although we are burning fossil fuels at an unsustainable rate, causing mass extrinctions of species and generally fouling the nest it could all be down to sun spots. And don't worry because Lord Lawson, that economic giant, knows that Parliamentary Democracy will survive through the period of turmoil and the nasty grubby warlords / dictators / mafias will become nice people and help rebuild society after the crash.
Be affable, but have Occam's Razor in your back pocket.
I like to watch the Discovery channels and lately I have been following the channel that has been showing walking with Dinosaurs. It was showing what happened to them and how the earth was changing, Ice ages, volcanos erupting etc. Now if you think about it man wasnt around that early, so unless the Dinosaur caused global warning, it was all mother nature from what I understand. all natural occurances, and in my opinion that is what is happening now, the earth is just going through it's natural cycle, oh yes we ay be helping it a little with what we do in our every day lives, but at the end of the day it is going to happen anyway whether man is on this earth or not.
wasn't it a large rock hitting the earth at a high speed that cause those changes?
yep that caused some of it, but a lot of it is to do with the way the earth revolves or summat like that, I dont understand all of it, but from what iveunderstood or the way ive understood it, it is good old mother nature aswell.
Aye gizzy we apparently have an eliptical orbit and axial tilt, which does give us the seasons but also give us variations in temperature as the Earth nears and moves away from the Sun in it's orbit. But WE ARE sticking a lot of heat, chemicals and cr*p in to the atmoshpere and we should be doing something to reduce that, even if it's only for health reasons.
Be affable, but have Occam's Razor in your back pocket.
Yep there is global warming I believe but what we need to do is sift through the doom and gloom and crxp that we are fed and find some sort of balance that might give us some truth of the real situation.
"Dont forget to cover your bum, or you'll get a red bum"
I think the terminology is changing. What bothers me is that (as posted on other threads) we will never get to know "the whole truth" but that is no excuse for not acting.
I am aware of "something must be done, this is something so we must do it" is invalid as a motive as well.
And I agree with Kensington that it would be good to know what the situation is.
But I think I know why those who are saying that there IS GW are being pilliored, in that the groups that have to make changes are feeling under threat and are biting back.
The oil business has provided an amazing standard of living for a minority on this planet, and helped keep the return of human slavery un-economical (when the oil runs out, the lash and overseer will be back). But it's also devastated environments and lives all over the planet.
Democratic Politicians have lately become a timid venal bunch, and don't want to make the decisions necessary to move away from a Carbon economy. Though I don't wholly blame them as there are more votes in supporting the car industry / oil based economy than "going green".
What we've seen with GW, as we did with Y2K is people realising there is a problem, and having to shout long hard and sometimes over-emphasising their point in order to get the apathetic masses to listen.
The difference is that with Y2K there was a deadline, people on both sides of the arguement saw that there would be a period of pain, (opportunity) and adjustment, but it would "end" at a certain point and all wanted to be on the side of the angels.
With GW there is no "deadline", things will / may / could happen in 10 / 20 / 30 years time and that pushes it firmly in to the "not my problem" category (like Gordon Brown and all his bl*8dy budgets, I'm just glad he is still around, only for the reason that he's going to get the caning he deserves in May) so people won't get motivated.
If someone came up with a deadline "the atmosphere will ignite in 2010 unless we act now" it would (a) put some urgency in to getting things done (b) allow those who do NOT want for Political or Economic reasons to do anything an "excuse" to get on board. They could take the short 2 year pain and if the atmosphere does not ignite in 2010 go around saying "see we told you so" or "it didn't happen because of what we did"
Be affable, but have Occam's Razor in your back pocket.
I believe they changed the term because there is no conclusive proof that it is indeed global warming but just a rapidly changing climate. Let's not forget that there was a mini-iceage in the 1930's. Personally I prefer calling it global climate change because as the temperatures get warmer, they'll rapidly drop and it'll become cool again and the cycle repeats. However mankind IS having an influence on the climate, don't get me wrong. Our abundant use of fossil fuels, rapid deforestation and the like ARE effecting the climate, that's an obvious outcome if you take away the essential parts of a delicate cycle.
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Some of it may have a grain of truth but I think a lot of it is just either media scare stories, or self-interest lobby groups trying to shout from the highest mountain with their hysteria.
The fact is there has always been climate change over the millennia; we've had ice ages, we've had temperate ages; its quite cyclical and more to do with the earth's orbit around the sun than anything; it should also be noted that for the last 14 years and for the next 13 years there will be high activity from the sun in terms of sunspots , gamma radiation blasts and all sorts of cosmic goodies screwing with the Earth's Van Allen belt.
But we also have to look at the man-made problems, over population, industrialisation of developing countries, bio-fuels, soil errosion, water irrigation, disappearing tracts of fossil fuels etc etc.
China & India are going to the next economic superpowers in the next 10 or 20 years, there will be a dramatic shift of economies from the ageing expensive western world to the cheaper more burgeoning developing world of east asia. and with that there is the need for more fuels, electricity, oil, construction, food, water etc etc ... where's it all going to come from and is there enough arable land to support such additional demands?
It is interesting that China, India & some south American countries who are on the verge of global economic dominance are refusing to sign the next Kyoto Protocol when the current ratification expires in 2012; and yet 10 years ago when these same countries were no where near the powerhouses they are now were criticising the USA for not signing the Agreement and accusing the West of protectionism.
So its all self-interest when it comes to global warming, yes something should be done but not by us, and not today, or tomorrow. Leave it till next time when it will be someone else's problem. But in the interim lets introduce a green tax on anything and everything and fool the public into thinking we're actually doing something constructive.
Diane, a lot of what you are saying is what I was trying to get at. I think what irritates me most are the scare stories, media hype and hysteria. It reminds me so much of all that doom and gloom we have put up with religions about the world ending over the centuries. As Ogre and others have said we should do what we can and act responsibly but we do need some more balance
"Dont forget to cover your bum, or you'll get a red bum"
Diane, a lot of what you are saying is what I was trying to get at. I think what irritates me most are the scare stories, media hype and hysteria. It reminds me so much of all that doom and gloom we have put up with religions about the world ending over the centuries. As Ogre and others have said we should do what we can and act responsibly but we do need some more balance
The media do have a lot to answer for, but of course they thrive on bad news and dramas. So any little thing, any little change in the weather and they put it down to "climate change!" and everyone starts getting scared again
Have any of you read Micheal Crichton's State of Fear. It is a little over hyped about the scaremongering by Global Climate Change advocates, pretty much going the other direction, but it makes some good points. The thing is, yes the temp has been going up since the middle ages, but that is because the planet experienced a little ice age then. What is causing the increase is still in debate. Certain people are using this though to gain money, influence, or both. There is still a lot of study that needs to be done on the subject
Edit to say: This doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't do anything. There are things we should start to address, alternative fuels, etc... I just think that thinking the news or politicians always tell the truth is just as dumb as taking religion at it's word, but I also feel I am preaching to the choir on this point.
Hi Amaris, I DON'T want to have a crack at you personally here, but "the Earth" - what is the Earth? A lump of matter floating in space, a biosphere, a sentinent being?
I don't accept the phrase "the Earth looks after itself" as I don't believe there is an "Earth" to look after "itself"
(this is not a dig at you, just the phrase if you see what I mean).
"Man" has to take responsibility and look after our habitat a d*mn sight better than we have been, both on the Political, Social and Environmental fronts.
Because no one will look after "us" if we don't.
On another point, I grew up hearing the Rain forests were being decimated because of land grabs for cops, illegal logging. Suddenly (and it has been suddenly) it's all down to "alternative fuels". Yeah riiiiggghhhht. I think a few key people have taken some backhanders here.
Hi Beamstalk, I haven't read that book, I will put it on the list.
I do find it interesting that they have started reporting a form of deadline, in that they are now saying we will have 15 years of stability before the next bout of heating, I will follow the hysteria until 2023.
Again I think it will take hysteria to actually get something done.
Be affable, but have Occam's Razor in your back pocket.
Hi Amaris, I DON'T want to have a crack at you personally here, but "the Earth" - what is the Earth? A lump of matter floating in space, a biosphere, a sentinent being?
I don't accept the phrase "the Earth looks after itself" as I don't believe there is an "Earth" to look after "itself"
(this is not a dig at you, just the phrase if you see what I mean).
"Man" has to take responsibility and look after our habitat a d*mn sight better than we have been, both on the Political, Social and Environmental fronts.
Because no one will look after "us" if we don't.
On another point, I grew up hearing the Rain forests were being decimated because of land grabs for cops, illegal logging. Suddenly (and it has been suddenly) it's all down to "alternative fuels". Yeah riiiiggghhhht. I think a few key people have taken some backhanders here.
Will get back to you on this one ogre at work at the moment .
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.” Christopher Hitchens
Hi Amaris, I DON'T want to have a crack at you personally here
I know ogre
but "the Earth" - what is the Earth? A lump of matter floating in space, a biosphere, a sentinent being?
I don't accept the phrase "the Earth looks after itself" as I don't believe there is an "Earth" to look after "itself"
Well that would depend on an individual's perception decided by many different factors but would include, I hope, their reading matter. I would hope they will learn and make a personal decision based on the findings. My personal belief is that the Earth is an intricate balance of many interlinked processes which allow life to exist. I don't just mean human life I mean an ability for existing even in the most basic form. The fact the Earth can adapt to changes shows some kind of "taking care of itself". I'm in no way suggesting it has a knowing but the Earth has a way of surviving and adapting to change and, for want of a different word, healing itself.
"Man" has to take responsibility and look after our habitat a d*mn sight better than we have been, both on the Political, Social and Environmental fronts.
I agree we do have a responsibility to our children and future generations.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.” Christopher Hitchens
Aye gizzy we apparently have an eliptical orbit and axial tilt, which does give us the seasons but also give us variations in temperature as the Earth nears and moves away from the Sun in it's orbit.
But this has nothing to do with global warming as it's pretty stable. The earth reaches its periapsis (i.e. closest point to the sun) at (I think) the beginning of January, and its apoapsis at the beginning of July every year, and the distance doesnt appreciably change from year to year.
But WE ARE sticking a lot of heat, chemicals and cr*p in to the atmoshpere and we should be doing something to reduce that, even if it's only for health reasons.
Agreed. Even if our emissions aren't going to cause a global catastrophe, it's still a damn good idea to reduce them as much as possible.
I don't know what to think about GW either, though. There are plausible arguments on both sides, and not being that much of a scientist, I have no idea what to believe.
Fry: Hey, wait, I'm having one of those things…you know, a headache with pictures. Leela: An idea?
I believe it doesnt matter what we do to the earth. When it gets pissed off at us well just become another mass extinction. I do not believe global warming is what will finish us off. I think what will, is going to be biological, and probably effect the ability to reproduce.